Will JD Vance say "China" in Des Moines?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 29.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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JD Vance is scheduled to visit Des Moines on May 5, 2026 (https://www.kwqc.com/2026/05/02/vice-president-jd-vance-visit-iowa-manufacturing-facility-tuesday/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during events in Des Moines scheduled for May 5, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Vance is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about JD Vance's visit to Des Moines scheduled for May 5, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.