Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?
Probability
23¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$10.5K
Liquidity
$30.6K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 23¢; flat in the last hour.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 699.6h
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 23¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
7- 100¢+29.0
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01?
Other · Vol $3.7M
- 100¢+48.4
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?
Other · Vol $346.0K
- 18¢-1.0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Other · Vol $325.2K
- 0¢0.0
Saint-Malo: Yue Yuan vs Anna Blinkova
Other · Vol $293.8K
- 0¢-10.4
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01?
Other · Vol $292.6K
- 100¢+50.4
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-01?
Other · Vol $271.3K
Market Description
If JD Vance visits Pakistan by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Pakistan. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.