Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic primary election?
Probability
70¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$8.45
Liquidity
$12.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 70¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1065h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $12.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1064.6h
- 15:24SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1065h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 69¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 69¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 69¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 70¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 70¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 70¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 69¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 70¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 68¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 71¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 69¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 67¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 70¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of South Carolina, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Carolina Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Carolina Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).