Agonizing-Familiarity
0x614ef98a8be021de3a974942b2fb98794ff34f1b
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
24
Open notional
$6.6K
Total PnL
$-51.5K
Realised
$2.3K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
5314 shares @ 83.3¢·now 76.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$4.1K
$-358.74
- NO
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
1334 shares @ 83.9¢·now 76.2¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$1.0K
$-102.79
- YES
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
3053 shares @ 40.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$656.42
$-564.83
- NO
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?
9692 shares @ 7.1¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$513.68
$-173.68
- NO
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?
279 shares @ 56.1¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$188.39
$31.77
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
75 shares @ 88.9¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$72.70
$5.65
- YES
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
1177 shares @ 10.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$64.74
$-52.97
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.85
$0.35
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?
1049 shares @ 82.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.52
$-867.27
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.15
$-0.35
Recent activity
- REDEEMLuca Zidane: 4+ saves$512.74Jul 14, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?$316.76Jul 12, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$74.64Jul 11, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$867.80Jul 11, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$644.64Jul 11, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYLuca Zidane: 4+ saves$460.64Jul 10, 22:02 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$4.58Jul 9, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$12.2KJul 7, 15:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$12.2KJul 6, 13:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$1.3KJul 1, 11:24 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$59.74Jul 1, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.59Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$9.5KJun 30, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?$1.2KJun 30, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?$6.14Jun 30, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$3.7KJun 27, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$6.6KJun 27, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?$9.38Jun 27, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?$4.66Jun 27, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?$1.14Jun 27, 05:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$11.8K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
May 22, 21:39 UTC → May 22, 21:36 UTC
- BUYIran closes its airspace by May 24?$5.2K@69¢May 22, 21:36 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
$11.8K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $1.5K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 09:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.