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SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 28, 2026

Will Juan Soto lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?

Probability

25¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$2.12

Liquidity

$86.99

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 22, 2026, 21:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:57
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 3731h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 48.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 3731.0h

    LOW
  • 12:57Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 3731h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -24.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -24.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -24.5pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the player who steals the most bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records fewer caught stealings during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player with the higher on base percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more total bases during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (48.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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