Will Kai or Speed die to a polar bear?

• 01
  Price move

  Up 35pp over 24h

  Now 44¢; +22.0pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 03
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 77.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET, in which they will attempt to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a death message containing the specified mob's name is displayed for either Kai or Speed following an in-game death during the marathon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any death message containing the specified mob's name will count, including its plural and possessive forms, and regardless of how the mob caused the in-game death. The exact mob name must appear; a death message naming a different mob whose name contains the specified mob's name will not count. For example, an in-game death to a Wither Skeleton will not resolve "Skeleton" to "Yes," and an in-game death to a Cave Spider will not resolve "Spider" to "Yes." An in-game death seeming to be caused by the specified mob will not count if the mob's name does not appear in the death message. If a mob has been renamed, this market will resolve based on the actual mob type that caused the in-game death rather than the name displayed in the death message. A death message produced by any means other than an actual in-game death, including chat messages, overlays, or messages triggered by commands, will not count. Only one qualifying in-game death is required, and it may be by either player. This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon a qualifying in-game death. Only in-game deaths of the two accounts played by Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed will count. In-game deaths of any other player in the world, including guests, moderators, or co-streamers playing on their own accounts, will not count. It does not matter who is physically at the controls when an in-game death occurs; only whose account died in-game. In-game deaths in any Minecraft world played as part of the marathon will count, including restarts on new seeds, and including if Kai and Speed modify or abandon the objectives of the challenge, change the ruleset, or play outside of Hardcore mode at any point. No in-game death will count if it occurs while the player in question is in Creative or Spectator mode, or if it results from the use of commands, cheats, or any external tool to spawn entities, alter the world, or deal damage. Only in-game deaths occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the marathon live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. This market will remain open until the marathon ends, regardless of whether the challenge is completed. If the marathon ends without a qualifying in-game death, or if the marathon is cancelled or never begins, this market will resolve to "No". If the marathon is still ongoing as of September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on in-game deaths that have occurred up to that time. The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the marathon on Kai Cenat's and IShowSpeed's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.