Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
Probability
61¢
1h
+4.0pp
24h
-7.0pp
24h Vol
$1.3K
Liquidity
$23.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 61¢; +4.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 916h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $23.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 916.3h
- 19:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 916h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-6.5pp over the last 24h, now 61¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 41¢+10.0pp
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
Politics · Vol $1.2K
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate A win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate C win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate E win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate G win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate I win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate K win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate M win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $650.5K
- 3¢+1.1pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $575.1K
- 5¢-0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $528.1K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $339.7K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $333.2K
- 1¢+0.1pp
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $314.8K
Market Description
The Ulsan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumnec.go.kr
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.