Will King Charles say "NATO" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Probability
51¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$307.41
Liquidity
$330.82
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 56h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $331 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 3
Expiry in 56h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 56 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 56.1h
- 15:52SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 56h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 49¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 48¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 48¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 52¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 52¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 51¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 51¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 52¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 50¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 50¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 51¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 52¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 53¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 51¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 51¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 52¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 53¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 51¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
King Charles is scheduled to participate in a joint meeting of Congress on April 28, 2026. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/01/king-charles-joint-meeting-congress/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if King Charles says the listed term during the joint meeting of Congress scheduled for April 28, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about King Charles's remarks at the joint meeting of Congress scheduled for April 28, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
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