Tiny-Armoire
0x4faab5c4a34e21eee41b515b31393caab1eefecf
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$90.96
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-111.02
Win rate
39%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
78 shares @ 98.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$78.00
$1.01
- YES
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
4 shares @ 12.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$4.00
$3.52
- YES
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
2 shares @ 34.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$2.00
$1.32
- NO
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?
2 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.00
$0.42
- YES
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
4 shares @ 21.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.76
$0.92
- YES
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
3 shares @ 5.2¢·now 46.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.40
$1.24
- NO
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs?
1 shares @ 15.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.00
$0.85
- YES
Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
1 shares @ 81.6¢·now 52.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.53
$-0.29
- YES
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.13
$-0.89
- YES
Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027?
1 shares @ 9.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.06
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELLNew pandemic in 2026?$0.80Jun 16, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill King Charles say "NATO" during the joint meeting of Congress?$445.64Apr 27, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill King Charles say "NATO" during the joint meeting of Congress?$819.36Apr 23, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?$1.00Apr 13, 08:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$5.00Apr 13, 08:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hezbollah disarm by March 31?$532.00Apr 13, 08:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?$72.98Apr 13, 04:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?$8.20Apr 13, 04:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?$10.25Apr 13, 04:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?$11.89Apr 13, 04:19 UTC
- TRADESELLUS bank failure by December 31?$2.46Apr 11, 06:56 UTC
- TRADESELLUS bank failure by December 31?$245.59Apr 11, 06:55 UTC
- TRADESELLUS bank failure by December 31?$307.91Apr 11, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLUS bank failure by December 31?$86.10Apr 11, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS bank failure by December 31?$657.72Apr 10, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLInternet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?$374.44Apr 9, 11:12 UTC
- TRADESELLInternet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?$77.28Apr 9, 11:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$205.92Apr 9, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$104.86Apr 7, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$24.50Apr 7, 14:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
38/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
39% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $201.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 03:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 16, 05:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.