SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 24, 2026
Creator

Will LaBaron Philon be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?

Probability

4¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$746.83

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 24, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official NBA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (6.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-44.7pp 7d
1007550250
4¢
May 10, 2026, 01:00 UTCMay 17, 2026, 00:40 UTC
updated 00:40:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-17T00-40Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 6.6¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 24, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 911.3h

    LOW
  • 00:40Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.

Biggest hourly move: -45.1pp at May 13, 08:00 UTC (to 5¢).

Show top 8 of 45 hourly moves
  • May 13, 12:00 UTC · -44.5pp → 5¢
  • May 13, 10:00 UTC · -44.5pp → 5¢
  • May 13, 08:00 UTC · -45.1pp → 5¢
  • May 13, 05:00 UTC · -44.6pp → 5¢
  • May 13, 03:00 UTC · -44.5pp → 5¢
  • May 13, 02:00 UTC · -44.5pp → 5¢
  • May 13, 00:00 UTC · -44.5pp → 5¢
  • May 12, 22:00 UTC · -44.5pp → 5¢
updated 00:40:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 00:40:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event2026 NBA Draft: 3rd Overall Pick
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is drafted third overall in the 2026 NBA Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2026 NBA Draft is canceled, postponed or not completed by July 9, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nba

Reason

NBA — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will LaBaron Philon be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?"?

As of Sun, 17 May 2026 00:40:26 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -44.7pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 24, 2026 (2026-06-24T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $92.42. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $746.83. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.6¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

5 wallets
Open on Polymarket