Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$443.85
Liquidity
$9.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 8¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $9.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5972.1h
Price movement
-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.5pp at 01:00 (to 8¢).
Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
- 08:00 · -3.0pp → 8¢
- 07:00 · -3.0pp → 8¢
- 06:00 · -3.0pp → 8¢
- 04:00 · -3.0pp → 8¢
- 01:00 · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 00:00 · -3.0pp → 8¢
- 22:00 · -3.0pp → 8¢
- 21:00 · -3.0pp → 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Lighter 1-minute candle for Lighter (LIT/USDC) between December 30, 2025, 14:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Lighter, specifically the LIT/USDC “High” prices available at: https://app.lighter.xyz/trade/LIT_USDC with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Only the Lighter LIT/USDC price feed will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.