Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Probability
66¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$10.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 402.8h
- 05:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 403h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 63¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).