Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$10.17
Liquidity
$17.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 514h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $17.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 514.0h
- 13:59SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 514h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. The President of Andalusia will then be elected by the Parliament of Andalusia elected in this election. This market will resolve according to the first individual elected by the Parliament of Andalusia to serve as President of Andalusia following this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidents will not count. If no such President has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Andalusia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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