0x69801a470158a1beef683fb16b57808b97d118b0
0x69801a470158a1beef683fb16b57808b97d118b0
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$251.48
Total PnL
$-216.16
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
42 shares @ 99.9¢·now 97.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$41.45
$-1.00
- NO
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
42 shares @ 99.9¢·now 96.8¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$41.11
$-1.34
- NO
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,400,000 and 2,700,000 voters?
41 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$40.91
$0.08
- NO
Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?
41 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$40.62
$0.16
- NO
Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?
40 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$40.39
$0.04
- NO
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
42 shares @ 99.9¢·now 93.1¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$39.56
$-2.89
- YES
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
42 shares @ 99.9¢·now 17.5¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$7.44
$-35.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8PM ET
64 shares @ 64.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-41.19
- NO
Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor?
47 shares @ 99.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-46.60
- YES
Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor?
47 shares @ 99.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-46.60
Recent activity
- REDEEMGame 4: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?$5.00Jun 4, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYGame 4: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?$5.00Jun 4, 20:57 UTC
- REDEEMKK Studentski Centar vs. Mega Mozzart$40.20Jun 4, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?$40.49Jun 3, 05:57 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1?$40.64Jun 2, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?$40.47Jun 2, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?$40.59Jun 2, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1?$40.47Jun 1, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMGTA VI released before June 2026?$40.60Jun 1, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?$40.45Jun 1, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?$40.46Jun 1, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA VI released before June 2026?$40.58May 31, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?$40.48May 30, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?$41.00May 29, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?$40.39May 28, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Autodesk Q1 billings be above $2.0B?$0.97May 28, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?$40.94May 28, 00:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Carmen Montiel be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?$40.87May 27, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barrett McNabb be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?$40.87May 27, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3m?$7.43May 27, 00:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $34.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 9, 00:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 21:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.