Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
Probability
35¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$254.92
Liquidity
$21.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $21.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3776.3h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 35¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements. If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 15:44:41 GMT, YES is priced at 35% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Oct 11, 2026 (2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$254.92 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $254.92. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $21.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
