Will Marseille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?
Probability
66¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$30.44
Liquidity
$3.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-15.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 66¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 822h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 822.1h
- 17:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 822h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 52¢.
Biggest hourly move: -21.0pp at 2d ago (to 49¢).
Show all 22 hour-by-hour ticks
- 12:00 · +6.5pp → 52¢
- 11:00 · +3.5pp → 52¢
- 00:00 · +8.5pp → 52¢
- 23:00 · +8.5pp → 52¢
- 21:00 · +8.0pp → 52¢
- 18:00 · +5.0pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · +7.5pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · +7.5pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · +7.5pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · +7.5pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · -7.5pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 53¢
- 2d ago · -10.0pp → 50¢
- 2d ago · -10.5pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · -21.0pp → 49¢
- 2d ago · -16.5pp → 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings for the 2025–26 season. If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Ligue 1 tiebreaking procedures. If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.