Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?
Probability
44¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+7.9pp
24h Vol
$22.03
Liquidity
$280.14
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (11.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+41.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 44¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 71h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 11.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 71 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (11.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 71.2h
- 00:46SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 71h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+7.9pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.
Biggest hourly move: +37.5pp at 23:00 (to 44¢).
Show top 8 of 65 hourly moves
- 00:00 · +37.0pp → 44¢
- 23:00 · +37.5pp → 44¢
- 22:00 · +37.3pp → 44¢
- 17:00 · +35.7pp → 44¢
- 15:00 · +34.4pp → 43¢
- 3d ago · -32.0pp → 7¢
- 3d ago · -31.6pp → 7¢
- 3d ago · -31.4pp → 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Madrid Open Women’s Singles Tournament scheduled for April 20 - May 3, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Madrid Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Madrid Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after May 17, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Madrid Open (https://mutuamadridopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.