Will Mayes Middleton win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?
Probability
57¢
1h
+10.0pp
24h
+8.0pp
24h Vol
$41.50
Liquidity
$168.41
Probability (last 7 days)
-18.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 57¢; +10.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 729h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 63.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 728.8h
- 15:11SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 729h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 55¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 47¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 73¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 69¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 68¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 58¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 67¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 70¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 68¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 48¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 52¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 76¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 47¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 75¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.0pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.0pp
to 75¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.0pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.5pp
to 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Texas Republican Primary runoff election for state Attorney General, scheduled for May 26, 2026. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (63.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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