Will Mehmood Mirza win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?
Probability
37¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+8.5pp
24h Vol
$733.79
Liquidity
$19.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 37¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 280h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 4.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 280.2h
- 13:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 280h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:47PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.7pp
to 37¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.1pp
to 36¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.3pp
to 36¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.3pp
to 43¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 41.8pp
to 43¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.2pp
to 43¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.2pp
to 43¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.0pp
to 43¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.0pp
to 43¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 41.4pp
to 43¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.4pp
to 43¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.8pp
to 43¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 44.9pp
to 45¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.2pp
to 40¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.8pp
to 40¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.4pp
to 36¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.7pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.7pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.3pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.9pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.8pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.9pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.1pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.6pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.6pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.9pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.9pp
to 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Newham mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newham as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Newham Council.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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