Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$9.03
Liquidity
$648.00
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 116.6h
- 03:21SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 117h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
12- 46¢-2.4pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.5%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 29¢+0.1pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 0.0%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 3¢+0.1pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 39¢-5.0pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 2¢+0.2pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be over 2.5%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 24¢+16.5pp
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
Macro · Vol $8.19
- 100¢+0.2pp
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $3.9M
- 0¢0.0pp
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $3.2M
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $2.9M
- 0¢0.0pp
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $2.5M
- 98¢+4.2pp
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Macro · Vol $971.6K
- 0¢-0.7pp
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Macro · Vol $819.2K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (11.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).