Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
Probability
81¢
1h
-2.5pp
24h
-8.0pp
24h Vol
$1.3K
Liquidity
$18.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 81¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 562h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $18.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 562.3h
- 13:43SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 562h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:43PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 81¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 84¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 84¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 84¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 84¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 84¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 84¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 84¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 84¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 84¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 84¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 84¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 84¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 88¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Georgia. If no 2026 Georgia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).