Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?
Probability
38¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$55.39
Liquidity
$3.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 401.7h
- 06:16SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 402h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 40¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 40¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).