Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30?
Probability
23¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$20.00
Liquidity
$8.8K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 23¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1365.3h
- 02:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-6.0pp over the last 24h, now 23¢.
Biggest hourly move: -23.5pp at 13:00 (to 28¢).
Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
- 00:00 · -22.0pp → 23¢
- 22:00 · -20.0pp → 25¢
- 21:00 · -17.5pp → 28¢
- 19:00 · -18.5pp → 28¢
- 17:00 · -18.5pp → 28¢
- 15:00 · -18.5pp → 27¢
- 14:00 · -18.0pp → 27¢
- 13:00 · -23.5pp → 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 100¢+0.3
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Other · Vol $17.0M
- 100¢+0.2
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $359.4K
- 100¢0.0
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Other · Vol $129.8K
- 0¢-65.0
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-08?
Other · Vol $120.7K
- 2¢-3.1
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?
Other · Vol $101.9K
- 8¢+0.1
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Other · Vol $92.6K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Lebanon Joseph Aoun talks with Benjamin Netanyahu between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between Joseph Aoun and Benjamin Netanyahu, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.