Will New Jersey 5s finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball Columbus Event?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+56.5pp
24h Vol
$688.17
Liquidity
$174.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+98.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 56pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 1 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 0.5h
- 23:29SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
+56.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +54.3pp at 20:00 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
- 23:00 · +52.6pp → 100¢
- 21:00 · +54.3pp → 100¢
- 20:00 · +54.3pp → 100¢
- 14:00 · +49.0pp → 50¢
- 07:00 · +46.8pp → 48¢
- 06:00 · +46.9pp → 48¢
- 03:00 · +46.9pp → 48¢
- 02:00 · +46.9pp → 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes 1st at the 2026 Major League Pickleball Columbus tournament scheduled for May 28, 2026 through May 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the competition per the rules of MLP (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLP rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the team whose listed nickname comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Major League Pickleball Columbus tournament is canceled or not completed by June 14, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Pickleball (https://www.majorleaguepickleball.co). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will New Jersey 5s finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleball Columbus Event?"?
As of Sun, 31 May 2026 23:29:03 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +56.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +98.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$688.17 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $903.09. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $174.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.