SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 18, 2026
Creator

Will Nikolaj Ehlers lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals?

Probability

17¢

1h

+0.3pp

24h

+14.8pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$139.44

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 18, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official NHL data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (31.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.8pp 7d
1007550250
18¢
Jun 7, 2026, 15:00 UTCJun 14, 2026, 14:38 UTC
updated 14:38:32 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-14T14-38Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 15pp over 24h

    Now 17¢; +0.3pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 31.9¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive
Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official NHL data

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Nikolaj Ehlers lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Nikolaj Ehlers lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 18, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 805.3h

    LOW
  • 14:38Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+14.8pp over the last 24h, now 17¢.

Biggest hourly move: -43.6pp at Jun 12, 17:00 UTC (to 2¢).

Show top 8 of 50 hourly moves
  • Jun 12, 20:00 UTC · -41.7pp → 2¢
  • Jun 12, 19:00 UTC · -41.2pp → 2¢
  • Jun 12, 17:00 UTC · -43.6pp → 2¢
  • Jun 12, 15:00 UTC · -37.7pp → 2¢
  • Jun 12, 14:00 UTC · -39.4pp → 3¢
  • Jun 12, 12:00 UTC · -43.1pp → 2¢
  • Jun 12, 03:00 UTC · +37.5pp → 46¢
  • Jun 10, 05:00 UTC · +37.0pp → 46¢
updated 14:38:32 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 14:38:32 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventStanley Cup Finals: Goals Leader
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve in favor of the player that finishes the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals with the most total goals. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with more points during the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with the most goals in a single game of the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available NHL statistics for completed games. If the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals is cancelled, postponed after July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player had the most total goals within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nhl

Reason

NHL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Nikolaj Ehlers lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals?"?

As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 14:38:32 GMT, YES is priced at 17% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +14.8pp in the last 24 hours, +0.3pp in the last hour, and -4.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 18, 2026 (2026-07-18T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $41.51. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $139.44. Spread between best bid and best ask: 31.9¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

10 wallets
Open on Polymarket