Smug-Snowman
0x05474155c749a558ae6adb76050a748a8820fb35
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
187
Open notional
$8.1K
Total PnL
$137.69
Realised
$323.84
Win rate
69%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 187- YES
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before September
500 shares @ 97.6¢·now 92.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$464.50
$-23.40
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
500 shares @ 26.8¢·now 45.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$229.25
$95.25
- NO
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
210 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$208.11
$0.20
- NO
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
200 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$199.70
$0.30
- NO
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
200 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$199.30
$0.10
- NO
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
167 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$165.92
$0.25
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
200 shares @ 78.9¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$153.01
$-4.80
- NO
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
150 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$148.57
$0.22
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
150 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$140.25
$-0.75
- HANWHA LIFE ESPORTS
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
148 shares @ 72.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$111.56
$5.17
Recent activity
- REDEEMNew York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox$111.11Jul 29, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYGame 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?$3.84Jul 29, 02:33 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.97Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBaltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers$0.11Jul 29, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$3.83Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner$24.85Jul 28, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner$11.15Jul 28, 23:57 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$30.00Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group$43.17Jul 28, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group$43.92Jul 28, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group$19.30Jul 28, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals$53.33Jul 28, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYGame 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?$1.85Jul 28, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers$47.78Jul 28, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox$57.78Jul 28, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYCleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds$65.55Jul 28, 17:27 UTC
- MERGEWill Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $6.5B and $8B at market close on IPO day?$32.14Jul 28, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?$1.10Jul 28, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?$4.75Jul 28, 16:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $19.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 03:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.