Smug-Snowman
0x05474155c749a558ae6adb76050a748a8820fb35
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
198
Open notional
$8.2K
Total PnL
$259.38
Realised
$344.24
Win rate
69%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 198- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
500 shares @ 26.8¢·now 49.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$245.50
$111.50
- NO
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
210 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$208.11
$0.20
- NO
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
200 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$199.70
$0.30
- NO
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
200 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$199.30
$0.10
- NO
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
167 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$165.92
$0.25
- NO
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
150 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.2¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$148.72
$0.38
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
200 shares @ 78.9¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$147.01
$-10.80
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
150 shares @ 94.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$137.25
$-3.75
- BNK FEARX
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
150 shares @ 79.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$117.74
$-0.75
- YES
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
350 shares @ 39.2¢·now 32.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$113.83
$-23.53
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$1.53Jul 30, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?$4.49Jul 30, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$66.89Jul 30, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?$31.24Jul 30, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYCrypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?$0.75Jul 30, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?$3.55Jul 30, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYPro Football: Undefeated Regular Season$26.70Jul 30, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group$102.00Jul 30, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend$45.00Jul 30, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYGame Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5)$2.93Jul 30, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season$78.25Jul 30, 03:25 UTC
- REDEEMCleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5$121.55Jul 30, 02:25 UTC
- REDEEMKansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5$107.56Jul 30, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYGame 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?$1.85Jul 30, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season$1.24Jul 30, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYCrypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?$6.10Jul 30, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group$102.00Jul 30, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.5% in July?$1.68Jul 30, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.5% in July?$4.76Jul 30, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.5% in July?$3.28Jul 30, 01:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $23.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 18:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 06:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.