Will North West release an album by December 31?
Probability
79¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+27.0pp
24h Vol
$874.02
Liquidity
$2.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 27pp over 24h
Now 79¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 850h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 850.1h
- 13:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 850h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 79¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 79¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 81¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 81¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 82¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 78¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 80¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 78¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 77¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 52¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.5pp
to 52¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.5pp
to 52¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 53¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.0pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 57¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 68¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
1Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if North West officially releases a new album between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).