Will "Nuclear" or "Nuke" be said on ICEMAN?
Probability
49¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$798.63
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 49¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 462h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $799 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 461.8h
- 18:13SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 462h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 49¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.0pp at 10:00 (to 49¢).
Show all 6 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:13 · -5.0pp → 49¢
- 17:00 · -5.0pp → 49¢
- 15:00 · -5.0pp → 49¢
- 14:00 · -5.0pp → 49¢
- 12:00 · -7.0pp → 49¢
- 10:00 · -7.0pp → 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 64¢+18.5pp
Will "Covid" be said on ICEMAN?
Science · Vol $92.14
- 79¢+32.5pp
Will "Daddy" be said on ICEMAN?
Other · Vol $324.00
- 65¢+20.5pp
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said on ICEMAN?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 42¢-2.0pp
Will "Delilah" be said on ICEMAN?
Other · Vol $20.62
- 60¢+18.0pp
Will "Timothee" or "Kylie" be said on ICEMAN?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 45¢+23.5pp
Will "LeBron" or "Bronny" be said on ICEMAN?
Other · Vol $117.46
- 35¢-0.5pp
Will "Trump" or "Obama" be said on ICEMAN?
Politics · Vol $29.03
- 21¢-35.0pp
Will "Kendrick" or "Lamar" be said on ICEMAN?
Other · Vol $15.69
- 0¢-0.1pp
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $11.4M
- 3¢-7.4pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.9M
- 1¢-2.1pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.4M
- 18¢-52.0pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.0M
- 3¢-51.9pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $795.0K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Geopolitics · Vol $742.6K
Market Description
Drake is expected to release his new album "ICEMAN" in 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone on the specified transcript for any track on the officially released full "ICEMAN" album. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes. Samples or clips of audio where people are speaking or singing which are included in the album will qualify toward this market's resolution so long as it is included in the specified transcript. AI-generated audio will count toward this market's resolution so long as it is included in the specified transcript. In the case a term is censored on a relevant transcript, audio may be consulted to verify that a qualifying mention occurred. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market will resolve according to the initial release of the full album on a qualifying streaming platform. Releases consisting only of individual songs or remixes released later will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the audio transcripts for this album provided by the listed streaming platforms in the following order of priority: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, Amazon Music, Tidal (e.g., Spotify will be used unless it does not provide a necessary transcript, then Apple Music will be used, etc.). If no such album is released in full by by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to based on what has been released up to that point. If the album is not released on any of the listed platforms by the specified end date, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the initial release of the full album on a qualifying streaming platformAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.