Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 6¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $5.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.