Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
Probability
25¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-7.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 25¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.0h
- 16:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 24¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 33¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 34¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 34¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 33¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 33¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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