Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Probability
43¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-5.5pp
24h Vol
$12.47
Liquidity
$21.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 853.9h
- 10:05SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 854h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:05PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 43¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 43¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 43¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 44¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 44¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 39¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 40¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 38¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 38¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 42¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 39¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 40¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 45¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 45¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 45¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 48¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
12 wallets- 0xa5ef…29661.9K
- Modest-Geography102