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PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 31, 2026

Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Probability

43¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-5.5pp

24h Vol

$12.47

Liquidity

$21.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 10:05
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 853.9h

    LOW
  • 10:05Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 854h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 10:05Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -11.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -11.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 19:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventColombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place
Category · Politics

Market Description

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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