Will President Trump sign 4 pieces of legislation into law in April?
Probability
29¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$18.80
Liquidity
$16.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 102h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $16.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 102.1h
- 17:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 102h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 29¢.
Biggest hourly move: +15.0pp at 4d ago (to 35¢).
Show all 58 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -4.0pp → 29¢
- 16:00 · -4.0pp → 29¢
- 15:00 · -4.0pp → 29¢
- 13:00 · -3.5pp → 29¢
- 11:00 · -4.0pp → 29¢
- 09:00 · -4.5pp → 28¢
- 06:00 · -3.5pp → 30¢
- 05:00 · -3.0pp → 30¢
- 03:00 · -5.5pp → 30¢
- 02:00 · -5.5pp → 30¢
- 00:00 · -4.5pp → 30¢
- 23:00 · -5.5pp → 30¢
- 20:00 · -4.0pp → 30¢
- 18:00 · -5.5pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -5.0pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 33¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 33¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 33¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +3.5pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +11.0pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +12.0pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +6.5pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +8.0pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +14.0pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +13.0pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +13.0pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +12.5pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +13.0pp → 35¢
- 3d ago · +15.0pp → 35¢
- 3d ago · +12.5pp → 35¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +5.5pp → 35¢
- 3d ago · +5.5pp → 35¢
- 3d ago · +3.5pp → 34¢
- 3d ago · +10.0pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +13.0pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +9.0pp → 33¢
- 4d ago · +7.5pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +9.0pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +14.0pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +12.0pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · +9.0pp → 33¢
- 4d ago · +15.0pp → 35¢
- 4d ago · +11.5pp → 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of pieces of legislation that are signed into law between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President. Legislation that becomes law without a signature while Congress remains in session, or becomes law through veto override, as well as Presidential pocket vetoes that expire, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/), Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Official government informationOfficial government sourceextracted · highwhitehouse.gov
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.