Graceful-Crowd
0xadc9473c1d3a36940941565523dd2e42237f5856
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$203.87
Total PnL
$-556.30
Realised
$98.19
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31?
303 shares @ 50.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$159.07
$7.57
- NO
Remote IPO before 2027?
41 shares @ 85.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.39
$-2.46
- YES
Over $180B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?
20 shares @ 71.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.40
$-4.80
- YES
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
415 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.28
$-105.62
- NO
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
1 shares @ 46.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.72
$0.26
- YES
Will Tempo launch a token by March 31, 2026?
618 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-135.34
- YES
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)
394 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-70.92
- NO
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?
299 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-18.78
- NO
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
256 shares @ 76.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-196.84
- YES
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?
104 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-54.08
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?$0.36Jun 3, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks?$3.07Jun 3, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMCerebras IPO before 2027?$10.00Jun 3, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill FA win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?$55.00Jun 3, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$115.00Jun 3, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes?$133.00Jun 3, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMTrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026?$152.00Jun 3, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$420.00Jun 3, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?$114.12Apr 21, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$15.96Apr 21, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $180B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?$115.34Feb 8, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $180B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?$136.51Feb 8, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$17.76Feb 8, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLInsurrection Act invoked by March 31?$6.00Feb 8, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Elon Musk by March 31?$1.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?$4.42Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli parliament dissolved by December 31?$34.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fomo launch a token by December 31 2025?$64.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMOver $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?$131.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?$133.00Jan 12, 16:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $113.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 03:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 3, 10:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.