Disguised-Pajamas
0x426227d4a9c4ad5a1aae7f2706238f2154b9abaa
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$3.0K
Total PnL
$-89.01
Realised
$82.60
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
580 shares @ 71.5¢·now 84.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$487.20
$72.20
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
615 shares @ 59.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$298.05
$-64.52
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
593 shares @ 42.3¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$275.69
$24.83
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
500 shares @ 61.6¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$267.50
$-40.50
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
450 shares @ 76.2¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$240.75
$-102.00
- NO
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
292 shares @ 72.9¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$228.01
$14.93
- YES
Will Draymond Green play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
200 shares @ 95.4¢·now 99.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$198.79
$8.00
- NO
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?
200 shares @ 82.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$177.00
$13.00
- NO
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?
210 shares @ 70.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$161.99
$14.73
- NO
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?
160 shares @ 90.6¢·now 93.7¢·exp Oct 22, 2026$149.92
$4.96
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$102.27Jul 30, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$164.00Jul 30, 00:46 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.52Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$4.55Jul 30, 00:30 UTC
- REWARD$1.58Jul 30, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$5.20Jul 29, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$12.40Jul 29, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$104.00Jul 29, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$5.48Jul 29, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$1.67Jul 29, 22:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$30.00Jul 29, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$204.00Jul 29, 17:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$121.03Jul 29, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$20.95Jul 29, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$40.56Jul 29, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?$11.66Jul 29, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$22.55Jul 29, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?$24.60Jul 29, 12:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 28, 2026?$71.25Jul 29, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?$452.02Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $35.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 15:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 02:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.