Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
Probability
55¢
1h
-4.5pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$999.76
Probability (last 7 days)
-11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 55¢; -4.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1570.3h
- 13:41SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:41PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 54¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 60¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 56¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 56¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 54¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 55¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 60¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 56¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 59¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 59¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).