Will Raissa Butkowski win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$72.12
Liquidity
$9.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 334.2h
- 01:48SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 334h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 0¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 0¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 0¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 0¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 0¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 0¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 0¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 0¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 0¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.6pp
to 0¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 0¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 0¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 0¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 1¢+0.1pp
Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Politics · Vol $158.74
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Person E win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Person K win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Person M win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Person N win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Person O win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Person U win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Person W win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢0.0pp
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $7.9M
- 2¢-1.4pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $651.7K
- 43¢-5.0pp
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $571.3K
- 20¢+4.5pp
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Politics · Vol $442.5K
- 5¢-1.0pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $435.0K
- 1¢+0.1pp
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $393.0K
Market Description
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
Top Holders
11 wallets- 0xa5ef…29662.6K