Will Ralph Alvarado be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?
Probability
82¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+10.0pp
24h Vol
$254.76
Liquidity
$14.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+12.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 567.0h
- 08:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 567h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 82¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 82¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 82¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 82¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 82¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 81¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 82¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 81¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 82¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 81¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 82¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 81¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 76¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 77¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 74¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 71¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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