Will Randy Villegas advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Probability
59¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$696.09
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 59¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 897h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 896.5h
- 15:27SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 897h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 59¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 59¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 60¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 61¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 58¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 59¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 55¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 60¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 58¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 59¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 53¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 55¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
10- 95¢+0.9pp
Will David Valadao advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Other · Vol $18.00
- 5¢+1.5pp
Will Rudy Salas advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 18¢+11.9pp
Will Chris Mathys advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 40¢+1.0pp
Will Jasmeet Bains advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 3¢-1.3pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $641.0K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $605.8K
- 5¢0.0pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $495.9K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $370.7K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $342.5K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $329.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California'sAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).