Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

1. 1

   Up 2pp over 24h

   Now 17¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 280h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 14.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.