Will s1mple retire by June 30?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$323.10
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 5.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1562.6h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.1pp at 2d ago (to 7¢).
Show 4 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -5.1pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 7¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if s1mple, the professional counter-strike player, announces his retirement from professional competitive esports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement from s1mple that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred. Breaks, periods of inactivity, transitions to another game, or transitions to streaming will not count unless s1mple explicitly announces his retirement from professional competitive esports. The resolution source will be official announcements from s1mple, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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