Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 NL West title?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.6pp
24h
+0.7pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 5.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4035.1h
Price movement
+0.8pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.1pp at 1d ago (to 4¢).
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB National League West division. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the team whose listed nickname comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to be named the 2026 National League West division champion per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.