Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$44.67
Liquidity
$11.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 14¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 389h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $11.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 389.3h
- 18:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 389h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.5pp at 08:00 (to 14¢).
Show all 8 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:42 · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 17:00 · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 15:00 · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 14:00 · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 12:00 · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 11:00 · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 09:00 · -3.5pp → 14¢
- 08:00 · -3.5pp → 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 95¢+3.0pp
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Geopolitics · Vol $117.76
- 43¢+0.5pp
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $20.81
- 57¢+2.5pp
Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 32¢+1.0pp
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $30.78
- 99¢+0.3pp
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $208.12
- 97¢-0.1pp
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 66¢-0.5pp
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 90¢+1.5pp
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $500.00
- 100¢+22.4pp
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 54¢-3.5pp
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Other · Vol $649.4K
- 100¢0.0pp
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
Other · Vol $507.6K
- 48¢+3.0pp
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Other · Vol $488.2K
- 0¢-1.5pp
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
Other · Vol $478.0K
- 1¢-0.1pp
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $373.6K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumeurovision.tv
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.