Will Sayonara win the Masters London MVP
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-34.9pp
24h Vol
$213.00
Liquidity
$38.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
65% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
65% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 23, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryliquipedia.netTypeNews consensus
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 23, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-47.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 35pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 32h. UMA dispute is active.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 32 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 23, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryliquipedia.netTypeNews consensus
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 23, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: liquipedia.net
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: UMA pending
Orrery verification task Will Sayonara win the Masters London MVP State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Sayonara win the Masters London MVP State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 23, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 31.9h
- 20:02SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 32h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
-34.9pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -29.9pp at 14:00 (to 1¢).
Show top 8 of 68 hourly moves
- 20:00 · -26.5pp → 0¢
- 19:00 · -25.9pp → 0¢
- 18:00 · -23.9pp → 1¢
- 17:00 · -26.5pp → 1¢
- 15:00 · -28.9pp → 1¢
- 14:00 · -29.9pp → 1¢
- Jun 18, 12:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 24¢
- Jun 18, 10:00 UTC · -23.0pp → 22¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
8- 99¢+67.5
Will Neon win the Masters London MVP
Other · Vol $596.72
- 2¢-33.3
Will nobody win the Masters London MVP
Other · Vol $10.00
- 5¢-27.7
Will Jieni7 win the Masters London MVP
Other · Vol $827.02
- 3¢-7.2
Will Jamppi win the Masters London MVP
Other · Vol $10.00
- 2¢-14.8
Will invy win the Masters London MVP
Other · Vol $10.00
- 3¢-25.7
Will blowz win the Masters London MVP
Other · Vol $20.00
- 1¢-30.2
Will f0rsakeN win the Masters London MVP
Other · Vol $50.91
- 3¢-26.3
Will Sato win the Masters London MVP
Other · Vol $93.00
Market Description
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Masters London Most Valuable Player award for the 2026 Masters London. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by VCT rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Masters London is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the VCT; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Sayonara win the Masters London MVP"?
As of Sun, 21 Jun 2026 20:02:23 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -34.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -47.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 23, 2026 (2026-06-23T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from liquipedia.net.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from liquipedia.net. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$213.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $259.67. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $38.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.