PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 2, 2026

Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?

Probability

81¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

+1.5pp

24h Vol

$96.59

Liquidity

$14.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

+25.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:33
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 81¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 894h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $14.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 894.4h

    LOW
  • 17:34Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 894h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 81¢.

Biggest hourly move: +17.5pp at 2d ago (to 81¢).

Show all 32 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · +5.5pp → 81¢
  • 15:00 · +7.5pp → 80¢
  • 14:00 · +8.5pp → 80¢
  • 12:00 · +8.5pp → 80¢
  • 11:00 · +7.5pp → 80¢
  • 09:00 · +6.0pp → 80¢
  • 08:00 · +6.0pp → 80¢
  • 06:00 · +6.0pp → 80¢
  • 05:00 · +7.0pp → 80¢
  • 03:00 · +6.5pp → 80¢
  • 02:00 · +7.0pp → 80¢
  • 00:00 · +7.0pp → 80¢
  • 23:00 · +7.0pp → 80¢
  • 21:00 · +7.0pp → 80¢
  • 20:00 · +7.0pp → 80¢
  • 18:00 · +6.5pp → 80¢
  • 1d ago · +7.0pp → 79¢
  • 1d ago · +7.0pp → 78¢
  • 1d ago · +4.5pp → 76¢
  • 1d ago · +8.0pp → 80¢
  • 1d ago · +7.5pp → 81¢
  • 1d ago · +9.0pp → 80¢
  • 1d ago · +6.5pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +12.0pp → 83¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +16.5pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +6.5pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +11.0pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +12.5pp → 80¢
  • 2d ago · +17.5pp → 81¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 1Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
sos.ca.gov
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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