Competent-Collectivisation
0xe0a82519abff8c758191356c82ea9885f8702fb3
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$2.6K
Total PnL
$-698.84
Realised
$0.44
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
911 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$910.72
$291.43
- YES
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
1148 shares @ 44.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$820.93
$315.09
- YES
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
354 shares @ 63.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$353.70
$127.83
- YES
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?
310 shares @ 96.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$310.24
$10.24
- YES
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
196 shares @ 25.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$195.77
$145.77
- YES
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
585 shares @ 53.3¢·now 2.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$14.61
$-296.77
- YES
Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
474 shares @ 22.7¢·now 1.6¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$7.34
$-100.18
- YES
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
523 shares @ 65.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.31
$-341.74
- YES
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
647 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.97
$-147.46
- YES
Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
450 shares @ 19.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.22
$-85.71
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?$51.49Jun 25, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?$300.40Jun 25, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?$0.75Jun 18, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?$1.26Jun 18, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.00Jun 18, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.01Jun 18, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$6.14Jun 6, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$5.11Jun 6, 20:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?$222.86Jun 4, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$1.1KJun 4, 18:33 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.29Apr 18, 00:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$0.00Mar 25, 05:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$0.00Mar 25, 05:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$1.02Mar 25, 05:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$1.02Mar 25, 05:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$1.02Mar 25, 05:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$1.02Mar 25, 05:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$1.02Mar 25, 05:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$1.02Mar 25, 05:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$1.02Mar 25, 05:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $45.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 05:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 04:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.