Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-sean-collinson-win-the-california-lieutenant-governor-election-in-2026 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-sean-collinson-win-the-california-lieutenant-governor-election-in-2026/markdown.

PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 3, 2026

Creator

Will Sean Collinson win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?

Probability

8¢

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$71.14

Liquidity

$6.3K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Nov 3, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

8¢

May 15, 2026, 01:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 15:36 UTC

updated 15:36:36 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T15-36Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor

01
Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Nov 3, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Nov 3, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 4112.4h
LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.

updated 15:36:36 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 15:36:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventCalifornia Lieutenant Governor Election Winner

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Sean Collinson win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 15:36:36 GMT, YES is priced at 8% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Nov 3, 2026 (2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$71.14 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $71.14. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

5 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket