Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?
Probability
15¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$333.00
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 111.2h
- 08:45SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 111h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 14¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 14¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 17¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 15¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 13¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 13¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 11¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 14¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 18¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 19¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National OcAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).