What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Seoul have 160mm or more of precipitation in May?"?

As of Mon, 04 May 2026 01:32:42 GMT, YES is priced at 42% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.5pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $57.99. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $283.34.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-seoul-have-160mm-or-more-of-precipitation-in-may renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-seoul-have-160mm-or-more-of-precipitation-in-may/markdown.

UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires May 31, 2026

Creator

Will Seoul have 160mm or more of precipitation in May?

Probability

42¢

+9.5pp

24h

-3.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$283.34

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in May, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's informati
Link
data.kma.go.kr
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (62.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

Apr 28, 2026, 23:00May 4, 2026, 01:32

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

01
Price move
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 42¢; +9.5pp in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
03
Spread cost
Wide spread — 62.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in May, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's informati
Link
data.kma.go.kr
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (62.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 646.5h
LOW
01:32Signal
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
LOW

Price movement

-3.5pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.

Biggest hourly move: +22.0pp at 2d ago (to 46¢).

Show top 8 of 37 hourly moves

00:00 · +14.0pp → 42¢
19:00 · +11.5pp → 43¢
15:00 · -15.0pp → 35¢
13:00 · -10.5pp → 40¢
05:00 · -17.0pp → 36¢
2d ago · +22.0pp → 46¢
2d ago · -12.5pp → 28¢
3d ago · -13.0pp → 28¢

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in May, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of May at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of May 2026. If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Alerts

Deliver

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Top Holders

7 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket