Will Seoul have between 40-45mm of precipitation in April?
Probability
7¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+2.8pp
24h Vol
$56.69
Liquidity
$1.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 109.1h
- 10:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 109h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 2¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.4pp
to 1¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 3¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 5¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 5¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.1pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.4pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.4pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.6pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.1pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 7¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.1pp
to 7¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in April, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (10.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).