Will Seoul have between 45-50mm of precipitation in April?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-14.9pp
24h Vol
$107.98
Liquidity
$1.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 110.8h
- 09:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 111h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 16¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 15¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.9pp
to 18¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 17¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 18¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.4pp
to 18¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.7pp
to 38¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.3pp
to 36¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.4pp
to 36¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.3pp
to 36¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.6pp
to 35¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.3pp
to 33¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.3pp
to 33¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.1pp
to 33¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.1pp
to 33¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.9pp
to 36¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.2pp
to 32¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.1pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.3pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.3pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.1pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.9pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.1pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.1pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.9pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.2pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.3pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 15¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in April, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (9.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).